Fire Risk Potential
Report indicates fire risk from April to July.
Fire can be a useful tool when used appropriately and planned accordingly. However, wildfires can be a disaster to homes, farms/ranches and pastures. Natural disasters are never predictable, but, luckily, in the case of wildfires, previous weather patterns do give producers more of a heads up than normal.
Past weather and drought play a large role in fire risk. It was evident that there were extremes in many areas — flooding in the Midwest and Northwest; severe drought in the Southwest; and dry areas in the Great Plains, Southeast and New England. While past weather conditions were not always cooperative, ocean and atmospheric circulations (which greatly affect the weather) are continuously evolving.
Warming oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are indicative of the end of a La Niña spell (which played a large role in the severe droughts in 2011). This means for April the report predicted a likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures across most of the eastern two-thirds of the country, and cooler-than-normal temperatures along the northwest coast and southern Alaska.
The report predicted the fire hazard for the different areas of the United States:
- Alaska — Fire season is expected to start later this year, starting in May instead of April.
- Southwest — Normal significant fire potential is expected for April. However, in the northwestward and western half of the region, there is above-normal significant fire potential.
- Northern Rockies — While there is normally no real fire potential in April, dry conditions may have short periods of higher risk until late April or early May.
- Western Great Basin — Typically no risk in April, though western Nevada has potential for a large fire under windy conditions.
- Eastern Great Basin — Relatively little fire potential in April and normal expectations for subsequent months.
- Northwest — A cold and wet March indicates low risk of significant fires until late June.
- Northern California and Hawaii — Normal fire potential is expected from May through July.
- Southern California — Normal fire potential is expected through April and it will continue at normal levels later into summer.
- Rocky Mountain — Above-normal risk is projected for April and later months.
- Eastern Area — March alleviated some drought conditions, so fire risk is about normal.
- Southern Area — Weather, fuel moisture and drought risks all combine for above-normal fire risk, along with a moderate wind threat.
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