CattleFax Price Outlook
Cattle prices are expected to be up across the board,
from seedstock sales to fed-cattle prices.
“Bred-stock prices are projected to be up by 25%, or $200 to $300 per head, in 2014,” Kevin Good stated.
Market analyst Kevin Good’s presentation put smiles on the faces of prospective cattle sellers present for the CattleFax Outlook Seminar Feb. 5 during the 2014 Cattle Industry Convention in Nashville, Tenn. Good said prices should be stronger for all classes of cattle, with some segments reaching record-high levels.
According to Good, years of drought-driven culling has ended, for the most part, and rebuilding of the U.S. cow herd is under way. Cull cow slaughter has declined sharply. Retention of young females for breeding has begun, meaning fewer heifers will be fed to enter the slaughter mix. Total fed cattle numbers are expected to be down, by 600,000-700,000 head, during 2014 and again in 2015 — and feed costs have decreased. It all makes for a pretty positive price outlook.
Good said he expects another year of record-high retail beef prices. Fed-cattle prices are increasing for the fifth consecutive year, gaining more than 60% since 2009. Short supplies and increasing global demand for U.S. beef has moved the fed market to a higher trading range.
“In 2014, we expect the fed market to average $135 [per hundredweight (cwt.)], ranging from $120 to near $150,” reported Good.
Bolstered by higher fed values and lower feed prices, Good said he looks for yearling prices to range between $160 and just more than $170 per cwt. The 2014 average should be in the neighborhood of $167 per cwt. Calf sellers may enjoy all-time high prices. At peak demand for calves going to go on grass, prices could easily exceed $215 per cwt. Good said the 2014 average for 550-pound steers is expected to be $193 per cwt.
With high calf prices, better moisture and improved forage conditions driving herd expansion, record-high prices could be paid for bred females purchased through special bred-female sales and at private treaty.
“Bred stock prices are projected to be up by 25%, or $200 to $300 per head, in 2014,” Good stated.
Projections also suggest that cull-cow value will increase again this year. Good foresees a 15% jump, with Utility cows averaging $90 per cwt.
Editor’s Note: Troy Smith is a cattleman and freelance writer from Sargent, Neb. This article contains information compiled from the Angus Journal’s online coverage of the 2014 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show, which is available online at www.4cattlemen.com.